COVID19-036 – April 18,  2020
 

Dear Patients,

 
 

We have all been through a lot. Take a look at the diagram below. Some or all of it might apply to you. Thank you LF for forwarding this to me. There is no doubt that the last month has been emotionally exhausting. And yet, going through this makes us appreciate so many things in our lives and we perhaps emerge with a different view. Perhaps we are stronger, more grateful, more grounded. Who do I choose to be during COVID-19?

So often, obstacles create opportunities for personal growth and change. And here we are.

 
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The numbers:

US:           706,856 cases     37,087 deaths      5.2% fatality rate (up)

Maryland: 12,308 cases           463 deaths     3.76% fatality rate (up)  

Always remember when you look at these numbers, we only test people who have a high probability of being infected. And as noted below*, once the prevalence of the infection is understood, only then will we really know the fatality rate.

New York (New York Tough - click it): hospitalization numbers in NYC continue to go down.

Diagnostics and Therapeutics: 

  • We are learning about how many people are asymptomatically infected. This is important because it reduces our fatality rate. Stanford researchers announced that they just completed a study of 3,000 people in Santa Clara, CA. *The prevalence estimates represent a range of 48,000-81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, which is 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. If more studies confirm this, the fatality rate will significantly fall.

  • Quest Diagnostics announced yesterday that they now have an antibody test, and once they are up and running, they say they should be able to run 45,000 tests per day. This will be very helpful clinically to confirm for patients who had symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and for many reasons we elected not to get the RNA swab to confirm its actual presence. The test should give accurate results 14 to 21 days after the infection symptoms have resolved.

  • Remdesivir, an antiviral drug initially used for Ebola, seems to be very helpful in COVID-19 patients who are moderately to severely ill. There are multiple trials going on and major medical centers have the drug for compassionate release.

On a musical note: Changes by David Bowie

 

On a lighter note:
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Harry A. Oken, M.D.

Office: 410-910-7500, Fax: 410-910-2310
Cell: 443-324-0823
 
Adjunct Professor of Medicine
University of Maryland School of Medicine
 
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