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Every day there is a panoply of scary information; some of
it may be disinformation, some of it may be news reporting
intended to tease you into reading the article, some of it
may even be true. The virus is mutating, you can get the
virus again, hydroxychloroquine increases the chances for a
bad outcome, this fall and winter will be worse than now,
and it goes on and on. It seems like as soon as we get a
break, then the cycle of negative news slaps us in the face
again and again. You may find this article helpful about Headline
Stress Disorder. The bottom line is "many people will
experience some level of distress in relation to their news
consumption." For some, the more they consume, the worse
they feel. So, you might find that setting news time and
source limits may be helpful, as well as being careful with
social media.
Ultimately, you cannot beat finding a way to be less
reactive to stress. Work on being imperturbable. It takes
practice and it is something I work on all the time. Do not
dwell on the past, learn from it; do not worry about the
future, plan for it. Be present minded; the present can be a
perfect moment. I love this quote from Lester Levenson. I've
read much of his work; he's the guru of imperturbability.
The numbers:
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Maryland: 14,775 cases 631 deaths 4.3% fatality rate
(up)
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(deaths are +47, down from +68 yesterday)
Let me give you a trend to follow that is based on the Ro,
referred to as the R naught value (thank you AT). Ro
is a disease's basic reproductive number and it represents
how an infectious disease spreads through a population. The
idea is that in order for a disease to spread, a sick person
must be able to get at least one other person sick. If a
disease spreads to fewer than one other person, on average,
the outbreak can't happen. Click
this link - it shows how each state is doing; Maryland
is presently at 1.05 We want this value to be <1.0 and lower
is better. To receive our 'get out of jail' card, it needs
to be sustained for 14 days.
Diagnostics and Therapeutics:
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Continued conflicting data on the use of
hydroxychloroquine, alone or in combination with
azithromycin - it has not clearly been shown to be
beneficial based on a recently released VA study. In
fact, those who were given hydoxychloroquine may have
done worse. My interpretation of this is that the
population that it has been given to may be sicker and
therefore their poor outcome. These drugs may still have
a role if used early in high-risk patients who have not
deteriorated. Time will tell.
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In the LA study, done by USC, it was estimated that
approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has
antibody to COVID-19. This is consistent with the Santa
Clara study. This translates to 220,000 - 440,000 adults
in the US have been infected. This is 28-55 times higher
than the confirmed number of cases reported in the US at
the time of the study in early April. This is good news;
it means the prevalence is high, there is a large number
of asymptomatic patients and the fatality rate may be
significantly lower.
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NY began its antibody prevalence study yesterday. They
will randomly select 3,000 New Yorkers at 20 grocery
stores around the state. A finger-stick blood sample
will be obtained and tested for antibodies. I'm hopeful
to see those numbers soon.
On a musical note:
In honor of Earth
Day 2020 - What
a Wonderful World
And on a lighter note with today being the 50th anniversary
of Earth Day
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