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Quarantine fatigue. You are tired of staying in. I get it.
As with any complex problem, the road to solving it is full
of bumps and turns and big potholes. One thing is clear to
me: the current findings of asymptomatic carriers and the
presence of antibody in multiple studies shows that the
virus is prevalent, particularly in densely populated areas.
We now have studies from Germany, Italy, California (2),
Miami and New York. These studies all infer the same thing:
many people have had asymptomatic infections and have
contributed to spreading the infection. The high prevalence
of infection then means that our calculated fatality rate
falls by a large factor, perhaps similar to seasonal
influenza. The difference, of course, is the rapidity in the
large number of critically ill patients who initially
presented.
So, we wait. What are we waiting for? Our bio-statisticians,
epidemiologists, virologists, and public health officials to
provide more guidance to our elected officials. Further,
they can make sense of this high prevalence rate and newly
recognized lower fatality rate and determine how to regulate
the re-opening of our country. Meanwhile, we acknowledge
that our efforts have flattened the curve and should there
be another wave of many cases of critically ill patients,
our medical infrastructure is prepared.
Let me remind you of another thing. Every medical fact has a
half-life. This pandemic is a fluid situation that changes.
What was true and accepted yesterday may change today or
tomorrow. We learn and adjust as we go forward.
So, what do we do now? We wait. We wear our masks when we go
out for essential activities. We wash our hands. We dig deep
into ourselves and find the resolve the hang in there as we
wait for a meaningful and valid interpretation of the data
to guide us into our new reality. My bet, based on the
recent finding of the widespread prevalence of the
infection, is that there will be progressive relaxing of
mitigation to begin soon.
The numbers:
Maryland:
19,487 cases -/- 827 deaths -/- 4.25% fatality rate
The Maryland Ro:
Good news for Maryland! Ro =
0.90 and there was a drop in new cases of yesterday.
Locally, we are quiet and stable.
Diagnostics and Therapeutics:
Other than the prevalence information above, nothing new to
report.
On a musical note:
Hero
by Mariah Carey - 'That a hero lies in you!'
And on a lighter note:
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